
FOR DELIVERY: 9:30 A.M., E.S.T.
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2000
Advance copies of this statement are made available to the
press under lock-up conditions with the explicit
understanding that the data are embargoed until 8:30 a.m.
Eastern Standard Time.
Statement of
Katharine G. Abraham
Commissioner
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Friday, November 3, 2000
Good morning. I am pleased to have this opportunity to
comment on the October labor market data that we released
this morning.
The unemployment rate held steady at 3.9 percent in
October, remaining in the narrow 3.9- to 4.1-percent range
that has prevailed for the past year. Payroll employment
rose by 137,000 over the month, roughly in line with the
September gain but below the pace for the first 8 months of
the year. (These comparisons are based on data that have
been adjusted for hires and layoffs associated with Census
2000 and the effects of strike activity.)
In the goods-producing sector of the economy, employment
in construction rose by 34,000 over the month, after seasonal
adjustment, the second sizable increase in a row for the
industry following a relatively weak summer. Home mortgage
rates have been declining for several months, which likely
has bolstered building activity. Over the past year,
construction employment has risen by 272,000, accounting for
more than 1 in every 10 payroll jobs added over the period.
Manufacturing employment overall was unchanged in
October, following large declines in the prior 2 months. The
number of factory jobs generally had trended down from its
last peak in the spring of 1998 through the end of last year,
when the pattern of decline abated. The net employment
decline over the past 3 months, however, combined with the
net declines in manufacturing hours over the same period,
suggest renewed weakening in the demand for factory labor.
In October, there were job losses in the lumber and furniture
industries, and employment in apparel and textiles continued
to decline. Motor vehicle employment also edged down over
the month, and is down 46,000 since July, partly due to
cutbacks in heavy truck manufacturing. In contrast,
electronic components continued on its growth trend, and food
products recouped some of its recent losses.
In the service-producing sector, several industries
continued to add jobs. Real estate employment, for example,
rose by 12,000 in October after seasonal adjustment,
expanding for the third consecutive month. As with
construction, it seems likely that declines in mortgage rates
have contributed to the recent employment growth. Job growth
also continued in security brokerages, transportation, and
wholesale trade.
The services industry eked out an over-the-month gain of
17,000 jobs in October, following exceptionally large
increases in August and September. In October, job growth
continued in social services, health services, and
engineering and management services, but employment in
business services fell sharply, as 82,000 jobs were shed from
its help supply component. This loss more than offset the
large gain in help supply in September. Indeed, this industry
has had virtually no net employment growth since March.
Employment in retail trade has changed little since
July. There were October job gains in auto dealers and
service stations and in furniture stores within the retail
sector, but employment in general merchandise stores fell
over the month.
Average hourly earnings of private production or
nonsupervisory workers rose 6 cents in October to $13.89.
Over the past year, hourly earnings were up 3.8 percent. The
over-the-year increase has been between 3.5 and 3.8 percent
since February 1999.
Turning to the data from our survey of households, the
unemployment rate was unchanged in October at 3.9 percent.
Similarly, the jobless rates for major worker groups
generally changed little over the month, though I would note
that the unemployment rate for Hispanic workers slipped to
5.0 percent, the lowest level on record. The employment-
population ratio (64.4 percent in October) also was little
changed over the month and remains a bit below the record-
high levels set early this year.
Before concluding, I would like to provide you with a
preliminary estimate of the effect on our payroll employment
figures of the benchmark revision scheduled for release next
June. Once a year, the Bureau adjusts the payroll survey's
sample-based employment estimates to incorporate the previous
year's March universe employment counts in a process known as
benchmarking. These universe employment counts are derived
principally from state unemployment insurance tax reports
that nearly all employers are required to file. By early
November of each year, we typically have completed
preliminary tabulations of these universe counts for the
first quarter of the year. We routinely share our estimate
of the anticipated size of the benchmark revision for the
prior March at the time we release our October Employment
Situation report.
Preliminary tabulations for the first quarter of 2000
indicate that the estimate of overall payroll employment will
require an upward revision of approximately 392,000, or three-
tenths of one percent, for the March 2000 reference month.
The historical average for benchmark revisions over the past
decade has been plus or minus 0.3 percent.
In summary, payroll employment rose moderately in
October, and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.9
percent.
My colleagues and I now would be glad to answer your
questions.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Contact: (cpsinfo@bls.gov) Division of Labor Force Statistics-BLS
Last revised: December 11, 2000
URL: http://www.bls.census.gov/cps/pub/jec_oct2000.htm